Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Rainfall check -1 (March 2017)

UPDATE added on 13th March 2017 at the end of the article.


Previous articles:-

Rainfall Check for March 2017 may look too early or out of place, but this year (2017) it is necessary as 2 important rainfall yogas are happening in March.

They are
(1) Mercury- Venus closeness happens between 7th March and 25th March 2017. This happens in the western sky which is supposed to be an additional positive feature for rainfall.

(2) The three planets namely Sun, Mars and Saturn are going to be in alternating signs from 2nd March to 13th / 14th March 2017. This is an important rainfall yoga that was found to give flood causing rains in the past or rainfall of over 20 cm in a day. But this year this happens for a very short period of 11 days.

Even within this period, Moon’s position is important to give rainfall from this yoga. When Moon is in trines with these planets there would be rain on those days. This can be shown as follows for this year’s dates in March.

So the probable dates of rainfall from this yoga are 2nd and 3rd and few hours on 4th, night time of 10th, 11th and 12th March and a few hours on 13th. This is subject to rainfall spoiling yogas on these dates.

The following are the rainfall spoiling yogas found in the month of March and during the period of the above rainfall yoga in particular.

(1) Mars ahead of all planets and particularly Venus scorches the earth.
(2) Venus and Jupiter in opposite signs reduce any precipitation.

Apart from these the general outlook of all the planets is such that none of them are in rainfall spoiling starts in the Sapta Nadi Chakra (Sapta Nadi chakra can be seen here )

Overall scenario based on planetary combinations for March 2017 was earlier given in my article written on 27th December 2016. It is reproduced below.


Detailed scenario for March 2017.

There is a contradictory yoga present during the month of March. It is that Venus and Jupiter are in opposition which is a severe rainfall spoiling yoga and mentioned in the last column in the table given below. However the same opposition would also mean that when one of them is rising, the other is setting in the sky. This is a rainfall supportive yoga. The resultant of this tug of war can be known from the ground reality of whether it rains or not on the specified dates. If it rains it must be ascertained that the presence of other rainfall yogas over weigh the negative effect of opposition of Venus and Jupiter.

Date
Astrological
feature
Event
Place
Rainfall spoilers
if any
2nd March
Mars enters Aries thereby coming in alternate signs with Sun and Saturn.

Moon conjuncts Mars in Aries and is in 5th sign from Saturn
Rainfall
NE India, Brahmaputra catchment area, Kashmir.
Jup- Venus opposition.
3rd March
Moon conjuncts Mars and is in 5th sign from Saturn
Same as above
Same as above
Same as above.
4th March
Venus turns retrograde.
Some rainfall trigger
Same as above
+
North west section of India

7th March
Mercury and Sun in deep conjunction.
+
Mercury – Venus closeness begins.
Rainfall
West and North west parts of India.

9th and 10th March
Mercury enters Pisces to join Venus.

Moon in Amirtha Nadi (Aslesha)
Rainfall trigger.
Spurt in rainfall in North, NW and western parts of India

11th & 12th March
Moon in Leo conjunct with Rahu. Sat, Sun and Mars are in 5th, 7th and 9th from Moon
Good rainfall
Spurt in rainfall in eastern sections and east and SE coast of India.
On 12th Mercury enters Uttra Bhadrapada which causes dry winds and less moisture.
14th March
Sun enters Pisces thereby ending the yoga formed with Mars and Saturn.
End of rainfall period of the above trend.


18th March
Venus and Mercury cross each other from opposite directions.
Dry and
Hot winds.


20th March
Mars enters Bharani star
Temperature rises.


20th March
Mercury comes out of combustion.
Sudden flash floods or hail storms.
North, North west India including Pakistan.
Jupiter in opposition to Sun, Mercury and Venus
After 20th March

Rise in temperature.




Inference from the above table:-
Any realisation of rainfall can be between 2nd March and 11th / 12th March aided by the powerful yoga of Mars, Saturn and Sun in alternate signs. Regions indicated for rainfall during this period are likely to get heavy downpour sometimes exceeding 20 cm. During this period another important rainfall yoga (closeness of Mercury and Venus)  is present while 2 spoiler yogas (mentioned in the beginning of this article) continue throughout the month.

After 12th March, dry and hot climate is indicated.  Particularly after 20th March, hotter conditions would increase as Mars enters Bharani in the fiery sign. Only consolation after that comes at the time of Mercury emerging from combustion. But its impact could be felt in far away NW India or in Pakistan.

Rainfall scenario for Chennai and Tamilnadu.

The above chart does not show rainfall for Chennai or Tamilnadu, though Moon in Leo (11th and 12th March) shows eastern direction (east coast of India) and the stars it transits show South and south eastern coast of India.

The probable dates of rainfall aided by Sun- Mars- Sat yoga are 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th, 11th and 12th march. The realisation of rainfall on these dates for Chennai and TN can be ascertained only from daily Garbottam. The following are the daily Garbottam dates.

Expected rainfall date
Thithi
Garbottam date 6-1/2 months ago
Thithi on those dates.
2nd to 4th March 2017
Waxing Chathurthi Panchami, Shashti, Saptami in Maasi.
21st, 22nd,  23rd and 24th August 2016.
Waning Chathurthi, Panchami, Shashti and saptami in AavaNi.
11th and 12th March 2017
Waxing Chathurdashi and Pournami in Maasi.
Night of 30th August, 31st August and day of 1st September 2016.
Waning Chathurdashi and Amavasya in AavaNi.

Inference from the above table is that the places in any part of Tamilnadu that received rainfall on 21, 22, 23, 24, 30 & 31st August and on 1st September 2016 would not receive rainfall this March on 2, 3, 4, 10, 11 and 12th . Places that experienced drizzles and cloudy weather on the above mentioned dates in August 2016 are likely to get rainfall on the corresponding dates this March.

The reality check is that many parts Chennai and TN did receive rainfall in the said dates in August. Those places would not receive rainfall now. Where there was no cloudy / Garbottam weather at that time, there also no rains this March.


My place in Chennai received rainfall only from 25th August 2016. (My earlier article here) There was no Garbottam in the dates prior to that. On 31st August and 1st September 2016, some parts of Chennai received rainfall. The corresponding dates are 10th, 11th and 12th indicating east and south east part of India. There is a likelihood of rains in those parts at that time. It must be noted that planery combinations indicate east coast or south India (TN) around these dates.



UPDATE added on 13th March 2017:-

This is a reality check of the prediction of rainfall for March 2017.

As expected when Mars entered Aries to form a rainfall yoga with Sun and Saturn in alternate signs and when Moon joined such Mars on 2nd March, NE India and Kashmir received rainfall as indicated by astrological pointers. 

According to IMD report,
Arunachal Pradesh received fairly wide spread rainfall while Uttrakhand and Kashmir received widespread rainfall on 2nd March. Widespread rains continued in Arunachal Pradesh in E / NE India on 3rd March and it continued in the next few days too.

The next date as per astrological indicators is 4th March when Venus started retrogression and moved towards Mercury. Generally the date of start of retrogression of Venus or Mercury was seen to have triggered a fresh bout of rainfall. The sign where the retrogression happens is North (Pisces) and the star (Revathy star) in which Venus was regressing indicated North Eastern parts of India.

As per IMD report,
NE India continued to receive isolated rainfall while Arunachal Pradesh received fairly widespread rainfall on 4th and 5th.

In the article above, I mentioned NW section of India for this date, based on the reasoning that Sun (which is involved in the rainfall yoga) was in Satabhishak star which indicates NW section. But the fact that NW India did not receive rainfall on this date and the succeeding dates show that we need not take Sun into consideration. The rainfall trigger is obviously related to Venus retrograding. The learning therefore is that only those directions indicated by the planet in activity would get benefited by rainfall.
The next important date is 7th March when the gap between Mercury and Venus started getting reduced, though the distance was fairly high at 25 degrees. On this date Mercury and Sun were in deep conjunction. Since this conjunction happens in Aquarius indicating west, I expected rainfall in western parts of India. But the reality picture was that eastern parts of India also received isolated rainfall.

As per IMD report,
Coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka received isolated rainfall on 7th March. During all these dates, Tamilnadu also received isolated to scattered rainfall. This pattern of rainfall shows that east and west cover both the segments of Peninsular India.  

One prominent feature that I can relate to eastern section is the presence of Saturn (that forms  the rainfall yoga with Mars and Sun) in a sign (Sagittarius) that indicates east. Saturn was in the star Moola which indicates west. On 7th Saturn was in the 7th house from Moon. On that date and the next 2 dates Sun also was in connection with Moon by trinal position. The direction of the sun was west. Thus both western and eastern part of India received rainfall on 7th and the next few dates when Moon was in Gemini.

The next dates were 9th and 10th when Mercury entered Pisces to join with Venus. The direction is North and it did rain in parts of India in and around Delhi and north of Delhi. But during this time, interior TN also enjoyed some good spells. The rationale can be drawn from Moon’s position in Aslesha which indicates SE direction.

From Aslesha through Moon’s transit in Leo also indicates SE India which means Tamilnadu. Till 12th it did rain in eastern and south east sections of Tamilnadu. I must have refrained from using the word coastal region and just written eastern part.  From last year’s observation, we can say that when there are indications for formation of a system in the Bay we can expect rains in coastal regions when the direction indicated is east and south east. But the final outcome depends on local Garbottam.  

From now on, the rainfall yogas get affected.  With Sun entering Pisces on 14th March to come in opposition to Jupiter, the days would be dry. Added to this is the transit of Mercury in Uttra Bhadrapada which shows dry days ahead. On 18th Venus crosses Mercury backwards. Since there is a crossing of these two with Mercury moving in front of Venus, dry winds (andhi) can be expected in North India on that day and after that date.


I have given one more date for rainfall – that is on 20th March when Mercury comes out of combustion.  Let us see how far this is successful despite odds against it. The only supportive feature on 20th March is that Mercury and Venus are still closer on that date at a distance of 5 degrees. 


12 comments:

sriramlion said...

So no rains for chennai & surroundings?

jayasree said...

May be from 10th to 12th. Only then planetary & star depositors favour east coast and south east coast. Previous garbottam was also present. But for 2nd to 4th, many places in and around Chennai did not seem to have had garbottam. If you have rainfall / weather data on those days in August 2016, we can say for sure.

sriramlion said...

On 12th Mercury enters Uttra Bhadrapada which causes dry winds and less moisture.

Your above forecast was spot on maam..yesterday was the Highest temperature recorded in this year so far for chennai.Today also another hot day..Waiting for your forecast for April/May month..Pre monsoon cyclone if any..

sriramlion said...

But in march month,Predicting rains is difficult..You have done it perfectly..

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Sriram.
I have added an update on reality check at the end of the above article. Please read it. I will post the rainfall check at the beginning of every month.

Narayan TT said...

Hello Jayasree mam,
Again your predictions are quite close to reality and of course it is a process of continuous learning. Just have one query. For Hevilambi year from April 2017, we will have Mercury as ruler and Venus as Minister and Sun as megadhipathi. Sun was megadhipathi is 2014 Jaya year when Moon was both the ruler and minister and it rained quite well in Chennai. For 2017, Mercury and venus being closely associated for good rains, would we stand a good chance?

jayasree said...

Thanks Mr Narayan for your compliments.

On your query, I don't agree with you on the planets for ruler etc for Hevilambi year (2017-18). Mars is the ruler and Jupiter is the Minister for Hevilambi. Mercury and not Sun is the Meghadhipathi of Hevilambi. Please check part 1 of my article https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/12/rainfall-2017-level-1panchanga-based.html

Generally moon, Venus and Jupiter as Meghadhipathi and minister would give good rains. But Meghadhipathi description comes with more deliberations which I have explained in the link given above. And there are planetary yogas playing a crucial role in rainfall prospects. Please check Part 2 of my article for that:- https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/12/rainfall-2017-level-2-planetary.html

Mercury- Venus closeness is important to give rains. Presently that closeness is happening which had triggered rainfall. This closeness also triggers snowfall in the US. The late and sudden and unusual sub zero temperatures presently experienced in the US now as spring season has started was indicated by me in one of the previous articles. This can be attributed to Mercury-Venus closeness only. However this period ends soon on 25th March.

My series on rainfall prediction based on research shows that inspite of this closeness, rainfall may not materialise if there are planetary combinations that spoil rainfall and if there is no local garbottam to support rainfall in a place. As far as Chennai is concerned I am doing the day-to-day observation which I will writing in the months relevant to the realisation of rainfall. Presently cloudy days were experienced in Chennai. This corresponds to the 3rd week of September indicating rainfall to Chennai at that time.

This corresponds to 7th day of Solar / Margazhi garbottam which showed that there would be rains between 18th and 21st Sep. Check out that article here: https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2017/01/margazhi-garbottam-2017-in-nutshell.html

Thus we find a corroboratory weather patterns at every stage.

Chennai and TN would experience very late rainfall at the end of NEM season - that is in December. Perhaps the meaning of "Hevilambi" explains this. Vilamba means delay, decline. He in HeVilambi gives a vocative stress to the nature of Vilamba. This could mean an exasperating wait for the rains or delay of the rains till the end of the season. When the rains start, the season would be over.

sriramlion said...

Maam..how do yu predict hailstorms?..Any specific yoga?

jayasree said...

Dear Mr Sriram. On 3 conditions hail storms occur. 1. If on the day of garbottam Sun or moon joins a malefic, the rainfall on the corresponding rainfall realisation day there will be hail storm or thunder shower or cyclone. The implication is that there would be an element of destruction in the rainfall. Depending on the season of rainfall it is judged whether it is hailstorm or just thunder showers or cyclone. In the case of cyclone there would be a trigger factor (in addition to rainfall yogas) in the form of some conjunction or crossing of a planet or entering a rasi involving Venus and mercury. At times they conjunct with or cross rahu or ketu also to give such destructive rainfall.
2. If the expected rainfall from a garbottam fails on the realisation day due to adverse planetary combinations, the failed rainfall would be realised on the next date supported by garbottam. That rainfall would be violent and destructive either in the form of hailstorm or thunder shower. Last year a couple or so of thunder showers in August were of this type. Since it is August it was not a hailstorm but a thunder shower. 3. When mercury is forward to Venus or when Sun is inbetween Venus and mercury with mercury in forward position during pre monsoon period a supportive garbottam would give hailstorm to a place.

sriramlion said...

Thank yu maam..On march 20th,chances for rainfall in north india only or southern india too?

jayasree said...

@ Mr Sriram,

Mercury comes out of combustion in Revathy star. Revathy signifies North and NE direction. The sign happens to be Pisces which signifies North. In all probability North stands a greater chance and to some extent NE and NW. Going by past notings, north signifies Delhi, north of Delhi and the latitudes on and above Delhi. Let us see whether it occurs like that this time. Last year when Mercury came out of combustion between April 4th and 6th, it rained in Kashmir, Pakisthan and in Delhi too causing flash floods. But at that time this happened in Aswini star. Check my article then:- https://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2016/05/rainfall-check-1-role-of-mercury-venus.html

This time the coming out of combustion happens in Revathy, to the west of Aswini. Therefore I had written in the above article, NW also - it could be the regions west of the regions that received rainfall last year.

Basically till 25th March, the rainfall yoga formed by Mercury - Venus closeness is potent.

sriramlion said...

Yes.Again good rains are forecasted in north india..In places like srinagar,manali,jammu n kashmir..